Ends on

Jan 1, 2027

Created by

Limitless

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Vol. 0 USDC

December 31

15%

October 31

4.5%

August 31

Resolved No

September 30

Resolved No

YES

15% Chance

Volume $0

Resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.


This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.


If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.


Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.


The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

This market will resolve according to Polymarket's final resolution and rules.

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Trade this market

December 31

YES: 16¢

NO: 86¢