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中文预测专区

Politics

Take a position on elections, policy moves, and global power plays. From Seoul to Washington — trade on what the world's leaders will do next.

All Markets

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All Markets

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Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

0.5% chance

99.5%

Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by...?

September 30?

3.5%

August 30?

NO

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

September 30

4%

August 31

NO

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Lula da Silva <5%

55.8%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

21.5%

Lula da Silva 5-10%

12%

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%

5.8%

Lula da Silva 10-15%

3%

Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+

2.3%

Lula da Silva 15%+

0.5%

Other

0.5%

Ratinho Júnior Victory

0.5%

Tarcisio de Freitas Victory

0.5%

Renan Santos Victory

50%

Will Donald Trump attend UFC 332?

50% chance

50%

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner

Eduardo Paes

87.3%

Douglas Ruas

12.8%

Will Donald Trump attend UFC 333?

50% chance

50%

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar

61%

Likud

39.3%

Together

1.3%

Shas

0.5%

The Democrats

0.5%

Otzma Yehudit

0.5%

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party

62.5%

Republican Party

37.5%

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep

61.5%

D Senate, R House

1.8%

R Senate, D House

31.5%

Republicans Sweep

7.5%

Other

0.5%

WI-04 House Election Winner

Democratic Party

96.8%

Republican Party

2.5%

Wyoming Senate Election Margin of Victory

Republican 40-45%

17.8%

Republican 35-40%

17.8%

Republican 45-50%

14.8%

Republican 50%+

7%

Democrat Wins

2.8%

Republican 30-35%

50%

Republican 25-30%

50%

Republican 20-25%

50%

Republican 15-20%

50%

Republican 10-15%

50.2%

Republican 0-10%

50%

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party

92.5%

Republican Party

7.5%

Other

50%

Tallahassee Mayoral Election Winner

Loranne Ausley

50.5%

Jeremy Matlow

39.8%

Ruben Gallego out as Senator?

Before Oct 1, 2026

50%

Before Nov 3, 2026

50%

Before Sep 1, 2026

NO

When will Big Bend border construction resume?

Before Nov 1, 2026

50%

Before Dec 1, 2026

50%

Before Oct 1, 2026

50%

Before Sep 8, 2026

NO

Will Trump declare an election emergency?

Before Nov 4, 2026

50%

Before Sep 1, 2026

NO

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

20.5% chance

79.5%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

15.5% chance

84.5%

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

3.8% chance

96.3%

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro

61%

Delcy Rodríguez

33.3%

No Head of State

1.3%

María Corina Machado

0.5%

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

17% chance

83%

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

42.6% chance

57.4%

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

3.8% chance

96.3%

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