$3,050M

As of market creation, Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP) is scheduled to release Q1 2026 earnings before market open on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, with a conference call at 8:30 AM ET.

This market resolves "Yes" if Shopify reports Total Revenue greater than or equal to the value specified in the title for Q1 2026 in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it resolves "No."

Resolution source: the Total Revenue figure published in Shopify's official Q1 2026 earnings press release issued via Shopify's Investor Relations website (shopify.com/investors) on May 5, 2026. If the press release and any concurrent investor materials disagree, the press release governs. If neither contains a Total Revenue figure, the figure reported in Shopify's Form 10-Q for Q1 2026 will be used.

Definition of Total Revenue: the headline GAAP Total Revenue figure for Q1 2026 as reported by Shopify, comprising Subscription Solutions revenue, Merchant Solutions revenue, and any other revenue components consolidated under GAAP. This market uses the headline total figure as it appears in Shopify's Q1 2026 earnings press release.

No-publication clause: if Shopify releases earnings without a Total Revenue figure in any of the documents above, and no such figure is published by Shopify on its official IR channels by 8:30:00 AM ET on May 9, 2026 (96 hours after the scheduled release window opens at 8:30:00 AM ET on May 5, 2026), the market resolves "No."

Delay clause: if Shopify does not release Q1 2026 earnings by 8:30:00 AM ET on June 19, 2026 (45 calendar days after the estimated earnings date), the market resolves "No."

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions to the initially announced Total Revenue figure (including those published in the subsequent Form 10-Q) will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes.

Note: Total Revenue is reported as a quarterly cumulative figure (revenue across the three months of Q1 2026), not a point-in-time or annualized figure.

Note: All figures are expressed in millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated. Shopify reports its financial results in U.S. dollars despite being headquartered in Canada and dual-listed on NASDAQ and TSX.