Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes 15.5%

No 84.5%

YES

15.5% Chance

Volume $41

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Resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

This market will resolve according to Polymarket's final resolution and rules.