4

This market resolves "YES" if the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA APHIS) has confirmed New World screwworm (NWS) animal cases in a number of distinct U.S. states equal to or greater than the number specified in the title, counting states that have at least one case with a Confirmed Date on or before August 31, 2026.

A state is counted once it has at least one confirmed animal case, and it continues to count even if all of its cases are later marked inactive. "State" means one of the 50 U.S. states; the District of Columbia and U.S. territories are excluded. The count includes cases in any animal (livestock, pets, or wildlife/feral); fly-trap detections and human cases are excluded.

The resolution source is the official USDA APHIS confirmed-detections dashboard: https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animals/animal-health/livestock-and-poultry-disease/current-status/us-confirmed-cases-new-world — read as of its 6:00 p.m. ET update on September 3, 2026, to allow for confirmation lag on late-August cases.

If the dashboard page is unavailable at the time of resolution, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

As of the July 5, 2026 update, cases had been confirmed in 2 states (Texas and New Mexico).