US New World screwworm above __ animal cases by end of August 2026

This market resolves "YES" if the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA APHIS) has confirmed a cumulative total of New World screwworm (NWS) animal cases in the United States equal to or greater than the number specified in the title, counting all cases with a Confirmed Date on or before August 31, 2026.

"Animal cases" means the cumulative "Total Animal Cases" figure reported on the USDA APHIS confirmed-detections dashboard (domestic plus wildlife/feral), counted since the first U.S. case on June 3, 2026, regardless of whether a case is later marked active or inactive. Fly-trap detections and human cases are excluded.

The resolution source is the official USDA APHIS confirmed-detections dashboard: https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animals/animal-health/livestock-and-poultry-disease/current-status/us-confirmed-cases-new-world — read as of its 6:00 p.m. ET update on September 3, 2026, to allow for confirmation lag on late-August cases.

If the dashboard page is unavailable at the time of resolution, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

As of the July 5, 2026 update, 32 cases had been confirmed.