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Politics Events

Take a position on elections, policy moves, and global power plays. From Seoul to Washington — trade on what the world's leaders will do next.

Politics Events Markets

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Politics Events Markets

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Tallahassee Mayoral Election Winner

Loranne Ausley

1.8%

Jeremy Matlow

49.9%

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an

65.5%

Puma Shen

35.3%

Kuo Hsi

0.5%

When will Big Bend border construction resume?

Before Dec 1, 2026

50%

Before Nov 1, 2026

NO

Before Sep 8, 2026

NO

Before Oct 1, 2026

NO

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

8.5% chance

91.5%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

7.5% chance

92.5%

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

1.3% chance

98.8%

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro

92.3%

Delcy Rodríguez

7%

María Corina Machado

0.5%

No Head of State

0.5%

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

4.8% chance

95.3%

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

44.5% chance

55.5%

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

1.3% chance

98.8%

Trump out as President before 2027?

2.3% chance

97.8%

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

54% chance

46%

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

2.8% chance

97.3%

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

12.5% chance

87.5%

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

1.5% chance

98.5%

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

4.3% chance

95.8%

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

93.5% chance

6.5%

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 2027

96%

US

2.3%

Switzerland

0.5%

Turkey

1%

Hungary

0.5%

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Daniel Penny

4.5%

Himself

3.8%

Ryan Salame

3.5%

Donald Brodie

51%

Matt Gaetz

50.7%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

December 31

34%

October 31

NO

September 30

NO

September 14

NO

August 31

NO

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 31

12.5%

November 30

4.3%

August 31

NO

October 31

NO

September 30

NO

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 31

7.8%

August 31

NO

October 31

NO

September 30

NO

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 31

9.8%

September 30

NO

July 4

NO

August 31

NO

October 31

NO

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 31

3.3%

August 31

NO

September 30

NO

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